Latest Taiwan drills show how PLA intends to deter US
A Washington-based think tank says it’s likely that China will launch an all-out kinetic blockade against Taiwan
The People’s Liberation Army says it is building joint combat capabilities that can deter the United States army. Photo: The Eastern Theater CommandThe Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched and completed the Joint Sword-2024B Exercise near Taiwan on Monday with a strong focus on deterring the United States from intervening in any possible battles in the Taiwan Strait.
The Eastern Theater Command of the PLA said Monday it had deployed the Liaoning aircraft carrier group to conduct exercises, along with its army, navy, air force and rocket force troops, on vessel-aircraft collaboration, joint air control and strikes on sea and land targets in the waters and airspace to the east of Taiwan.
”The drills aim to test the joint combat capabilities of multiple services in integrated operations inside and outside the island chain,” said Li Xi, spokesperson of the Eastern Theater Command.
He added that the drills, conducted in the Taiwan Strait and the north, south and east of the island of Taiwan, are a powerful deterrent to the separatist activities of “Taiwan independence” elements, and are legitimate and necessary actions to safeguard national sovereignty and national unity.
As of 4:30 pm, the Taiwanese military said the PLA had deployed a record total of 125 aircraft, 17 warships and 17 coast guard vessels in its exercise on Monday.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense said its military forces are standing on high alert and holding positions at sea and in the air to counter “irrational and provocative behavior” by China.
The drills came after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said in a speech on the Taiwanese National Day on October 10 that China has no right to represent Taiwan since the Republic of China (ROC) has a history of 113 years while the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is only 75 years old.
The US is seriously concerned by the PLA joint military drills in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan, said Matthew Miller, a spokesperson of the US Department of State.
The PRC response with military provocations to Lai’s routine annual speech is unwarranted and risks escalation, he said.
”We call on the PRC to act with restraint and to avoid any further actions that may undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the broader region, which is essential to regional peace and prosperity and a matter of international concern,” he added. “We continue to monitor PRC activities and coordinate with allies and partners regarding our shared concerns.”
Taiwan’s Presidential Office called on China to “cease military provocations that undermine regional peace and stability and stop threatening Taiwan’s democracy and freedom.”
‘Area denial’ capability
On May 23 to 25, the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command held the Joint Sword-2024Aexercise after Lai made his inauguration speech on May 20. Beijing said at that time that there would be more exercises later this year.
Chinese columnists said the PLA’s latest drills are a big step to push forward the reunification of mainland China and Taiwan.
“China wants to build joint combat capabilities that can match those of the US, which has an overwhelming advantage in its navy and air forces,” Shen Yi, a professor at the Department of International Politics, Fudan University of International Communication, says in an article published by Guancha.cn on Monday.
“Today’s Taiwan issue is a result of the previous incidents that aircraft, cruisers and destroyers of the United States’ 7th Fleet had transited the Taiwan Strait,” he said.
“The blockade of key Taiwanese ports is a newly-added mission in the Joint Sword 2024B exercise,” he said. “An over 10,000-ton coast guard ship, accompanied by four coast guard formations, was deployed. It has a larger tonnage than the US Navy’s Ticonderoga-class cruiser and Arleigh Burke-class shield destroyer.”
China’s large coast guard ship refers to a vessel with the hull number 2901, which has a nickname “monster ship” due to its displacement of 12,000 tons. For comparison, a Ticonderoga-class cruiser has a full load displacement of 9,600 tons while an Arleigh Burke-class shield destroyer has 8,300 to 9,700 tons.
Shen said the latest military drills and the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on September 25 have sent a clear signal to the US that China is building an “area denial” capability that the US can no longer fight against. He said it’s only a matter of time until American military experts will recognize this.
Three scenarios
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, said in a report on August 22 that there are three scenarios in which the PLA may blockade Taiwan:
- All-out kinetic blockade: In seven days of joint live-fire exercises around Taiwan, the PLA will block entrances to key Taiwanese ports and attack the island’s energy import terminals, power grid and transportation infrastructure. It will also cut the island’s undersea internet cables and launch cyberattacks. It will use anti-ship and anti-aircraft cruise missile batteries to enforce the blockade for several more months until Taiwan is willing to negotiate.
- Mining blockade: It is a scaled-down version of the all-out kinetic blockade. The PLA will fire a dozen ballistic missiles over and around Taiwan just to intimidate Taiwan and international shipping companies and deter other countries from intervening. Chinese submarines will lay sea mines at the entrances of Taiwan’s major ports. Chinese forces will be deployed to blockade key ports. They will open fire only if they are attacked.
- Limited blockade: It is largely consistent with the second scenario but lacks mining.
CSIS said the all-out kinetic blockade is believed to be the most likely approach China might take as the other two would leave the PLA highly exposed to escalation by Taiwan or interventions by the US.
Wang Shichun, a Chinese columnist, notes in an article on Monday that
It is the first time that China launched an exercise that aims to blockade Taiwan’s key ports and areas. By doing this, we can board, inspect and seize the ships that send US arms to Taiwan and stop other countries from sending oil and natural gas vessels to the island.
Wang says the Taiwanese government has been promoting the view that it only needs to resist the PLA’s attacks for a week to provide time for foreign powers to intervene in the war. But he says the US won’t be able to break the Chinese blockade.
“The CSIS report said the extent to which Washington and its allies intervene will determine the success or failure of a Chinese blockade,” he continues. “But I want to say that foreign interventions won’t be possible, as the initiative now lies with our army.”
Mao Ning, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry gave the official view in a media briefing on Monday:
If the US truly cares about peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and regional prosperity, it needs to abide by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, act on its leaders’ commitment of not supporting ‘Taiwan independence,’ stop arming Taiwan and stop sending wrong signals to the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces.
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